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CONTESTED ESTIMATE
Significant methodological disputes. View caveats below.
🤖Tech/AI
Tech Ai Regulatory Holiday
Upfront
+£200m
Annual
-£500m
Revenue
+£8.0bn
Net Annual Effect
+£7.5bn/year
Payback in 2 years
GDP +2.5%Productivity +0.8%very high uncertainty
UNCERTAINTY RANGE (Annual Net Effect)
Most Pessimistic
-£5.0bn
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Most Optimistic
+£25.0bn
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MAJOR CAVEATS
- •AI safety concerns real but often conflated with bias/fairness concerns that are more contested
- •Brussels Effect limited: EU AI Act primarily affects EU-deployed systems, not global development
- •UK already lighter-touch than EU - question is whether to go further toward US approach
- •Compute and talent are genuine constraints: £14bn infrastructure plan addresses compute, talent needs visa reform
- •"Bad actors" argument proves too much - applies to all technology, not specific to AI
- •Skills shortage is binding constraint but can be addressed in parallel with regulatory approach
- •Track record: UK tech sector successful precisely where regulation is lightest (fintech, gaming)
3 sources