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CONTESTED ESTIMATE
Significant methodological disputes. View caveats below.
🏭Industry
Reindustrialisation Package
Upfront
+£8.0bn
Annual
+£4.0bn
Revenue
+£9.0bn
Net Annual Effect
+£13.0bn/year
Payback in 8 years
GDP +2%Productivity +0.35%very high uncertainty
UNCERTAINTY RANGE (Annual Net Effect)
Most Pessimistic
-£15.0bn
⟷
Most Optimistic
+£30.0bn
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MAJOR CAVEATS
- •UK deindustrialisation was policy choice (energy costs, planning, skills) not inevitable market outcome
- •Services focus has delivered stagnant productivity since 2008 - "comparative advantage" is circular argument
- •"Picking winners" critique applies to all state action; question is whether current approach works (it doesnt)
- •US IRA/EU subsidies are real competitors but UK can focus on niches, not match scale
- •Energy costs 40-60% above EU is solvable policy problem, not fixed constraint
- •Labour costs argument ignores productivity: Germany has higher wages AND more manufacturing
- •Brexit friction real but UK can also negotiate FTAs with faster-growing markets
- •Taiwan/Korea/Singapore success required state capacity UK currently lacks - rebuild that first
3 sources