Criminal Justice
Executive Summary
The UK justice system is in unprecedented crisis with Crown Court backlogs reaching 74,651 cases (nearly double the 2019 level), prison overcrowding at 25% above safe capacity with 87,009 inmates, and a justice funding cut of 22.4% in real per-person terms since 2009/10. The system nearly collapsed in summer 2024, forcing emergency early release of 38,042 prisoners and revealing systemic failures from chronic underfunding, legal aid deserts affecting 15 million people, and workforce exodus driven by low pay and unsustainable workloads.
📊Scale of the Problem
Primary
Crown Court backlog: 74,651 outstanding cases as of December 2024 (up 11% from 67,317 in December 2023), nearly double the pre-pandemic figure of 40,898 in December 2019. Magistrates' court backlog: 309,838 cases (up 14% year-on-year). Median time from offence to completion: 355 days in Q3 2024 vs 253 days pre-pandemic.
Secondary
Prison population: 87,009 as of March 2025 with only 80,000 safe places (25% overcrowding rate). Remand population at record high of 17,023 (20% of total) - the highest level in at least 50 years. Over two-thirds of unreleased IPP prisoners have been held 10+ years beyond their minimum tariff.
Context
Justice funding fell 22.4% in real per-person terms from 2009/10 to 2022/23, despite UK economy growing 11.5% and overall government spending increasing 10.1%. Legal aid spending cut by £782 million between 2012-13 and 2022-23. England and Wales ranked 29th of European countries for police officers per capita. Prison assault rates increased 14% year-on-year, with 342 assaults per 1,000 prisoners in 2024.
🔍Root Causes
1Decade-Plus Austerity and Chronic Underfunding
Public funding for justice in England and Wales declined by 22.4% in real per-person terms from 2009/10 to 2022/23. Over this same period, the UK economy grew by 11.5% and overall government spending increased by 10.1% in real per-person terms. To maintain constant real per-person terms spending, an additional £2 billion would have been needed in 2022/23. This underinvestment left courtrooms crumbling (with leaking roofs forcing case cancellations), created a £4.2 billion cost overrun on prison construction (80% increase), and drove the closure of 295 court facilities across England and Wales in the decade before COVID. The Bar Council's 'Justice Short Changed' report found that funding is 30.4% below where it would be if it had kept pace with UK inflation, population growth and the economy.
2COVID-19 Pandemic Backlog Amplification
The pandemic didn't create the justice crisis - it exposed and amplified existing fragilities from a decade of underinvestment. Pre-pandemic (February 2020), the Crown Court backlog was already 38,016 cases, but it surged to a peak of 73,105 by September 2024. During lockdowns, courts had to operate under social distancing, reducing capacity. The government established 32 'Nightingale Courts' using venues like the Lowry Theatre and Peterborough Cathedral to create additional space, with £80 million invested and 1,600 new staff hired. However, 20 Nightingale Courts were still operating in 2024 (the fourth year), highlighting that the underlying capacity crisis was never resolved. The Constitution Committee found that 'reduced funding left courts vulnerable' and that pre-existing challenges 'exacerbated the devastating impact' of the pandemic.
3Prison Capacity Crisis and Sentencing Inflation
By the prison service's own measure of safe and decent accommodation, there were fewer than 80,000 prison places in March 2025, but the population stood at 87,009 - a 25% overcrowding rate. Some private prisons operate at 31% above capacity. The crisis stems from multiple factors: (1) Sentencing inflation - the average prison sentence in 2023 was over 25% longer than in 2012, and average custodial sentence length rose from 14 months (2010) to 21 months (2024); (2) Record remand population of 17,023 (highest in 50+ years), driven by court backlogs keeping defendants waiting longer for trial; (3) Failed prison expansion - in 2021, MoJ committed to 20,000 additional places by mid-2020s, but only 6,518 were delivered by September 2024, with the remainder now expected in 2031 at £4.2 billion over budget (80% increase). MoJ forecasts suggest the system will run out of capacity again by early 2026 and be short by 5,400 places by November 2027.
4Legal Aid Collapse and 'Justice Deserts'
The Legal Aid, Sentencing and Punishment of Offenders Act 2012 (LASPO) caused devastating cuts to civil legal aid, with spending reduced by £782 million between 2012-13 and 2022-23. Over 15 million people in the UK now live in 'legal aid deserts' with no local access to legal aid providers: 71% lack community care providers, 90% lack education law providers, 44% lack housing providers, 63% lack immigration providers, and 85% lack welfare benefits providers. Criminal legal aid also deteriorated: the number of duty solicitors fell by 1,446 since 2017 (a 26% drop), with one in eight duty solicitor schemes now at risk of being unsustainable. Civil legal aid fees have been frozen since 1996 and were cut 10% in 2011-12, meaning they're now approximately half their 1996 value in real terms. In February 2024, the High Court ruled that the government acted 'irrationally' in failing to increase criminal defence solicitors' rates by the recommended minimum 15%.
5Criminal Bar and Legal Profession Exodus
The criminal legal profession is in crisis, with a quarter of barristers having left since 2017 and an additional 25% planning to quit as of 2022. Criminal barristers went on indefinite strike from September to October 2022, demanding pay increases after legal aid rates were frozen or cut for 25 years, leaving real wages down 28% over two decades. The CBA reported that barristers are not paid for preparation work, 23% work over 60 hours weekly, and average earnings for the first three years are just £12,200. The number of self-employed barristers working 100% in crime and declaring 100% of income as publicly funded fell from 723 (2021-22) to 648 (2024-25). A 2022 CBA survey found one in three criminal barristers intended to quit. Due to lack of barristers, 280 trials could not be held in the three months prior to the 2022 strikes. The October 2022 settlement provided a 15% increase but the CBA had sought 25%, and the vote was narrow (43.26% rejected the deal).
6Probation Service Under-Resourcing and Understaffing
The Probation Service 'has too few staff, with too little experience and training, managing too many cases,' according to HM Inspectorate of Probation. As of September 2024, there were only 5,413 full-time equivalent probation officers against a target of 7,115 - a staffing level of just 76%. By April 2025, there was a 25% shortfall of probation officers despite an 11% increase over the previous year. In 2024, HMPPS discovered it had been underestimating staffing needs by around 40% (approximately 6,900 FTE staff), with internal analysis suggesting 'the service had been operating with around half the staff needed for sentence management.' Sickness levels are almost 13 days annually on average, rising to 15.5 days for probation officers - indicative of a service under significant pressure. Around half of all staff reported unmanageable workloads. The service expects to supervise around 20% more prison leavers by 2028 compared to December 2023, yet HMPPS acknowledges the Probation Service is currently 'unsustainable, requiring significant corrective action.'
7Police Workforce Pressures Despite Uplift
While police numbers increased following the government's pledge to recruit 20,000 additional officers, this only returned forces to near 2010 levels after a decade of cuts. By March 2025, there were 148,452 officers (headcount), but this represented a decrease of 1,316 officers (0.9%) compared to March 2024, with monthly declines from March to August 2024. England and Wales ranked 29th of European countries for police officers per 100,000 population. The uplift in officers has paradoxically contributed to court backlogs: the recruitment of 20,000+ officers increased the inflow of new Crown Court cases, with 121,579 cases received in 2024 - the highest annual total since 2016, and 13% higher than 2023 (107,433 cases). The Crown Court cannot keep pace with this increased caseload. Regional disparities are stark: London has 398 officers per 100,000 while Lincolnshire has far fewer, creating postcode lottery justice.
8Legal Framework Constraints on Executive Action
The expansion of human rights jurisprudence and judicial review has created procedural barriers to deportation and prison management that previous generations of administrators did not face. Foreign national offenders (10,500 - 12% of prison population) are difficult to deport due to Article 8 ECHR (right to family life) claims, with only 1,708 deported in 2024. Each deportation case can generate multiple judicial reviews, appeals, and fresh claims spanning years. Prison governors face constraints on segregation and discipline from human rights case law. The question of whether these protections represent essential safeguards or counterproductive obstacles is contested - but the operational reality is that actions that were administratively straightforward in the 1990s now require extensive legal process. This creates a 'procedural paralysis' where the state cannot act swiftly even when it has clear policy intent. Note: this is a contested framing - civil liberties groups argue these protections prevent abuses and miscarriages of justice.
⚙️How It Works (Mechanisms)
The Court Backlog Vicious Cycle
Court backlogs create a self-reinforcing crisis. With 74,651 Crown Court cases pending and trials being scheduled for 2027-2028, defendants spend longer on remand awaiting trial (remand population at record 17,023). This fills prisons, triggering emergency early releases (38,042 prisoners released under SDS40 between September 2024 and June 2025). Victims face years-long waits, with 48% having trial dates rescheduled and some waiting 3-4 years, causing many to withdraw (over 10% of adult rape cases stopped because victims withdrew). Witnesses' memories fade, evidence quality degrades, and justice denied becomes the norm. Meanwhile, the legal profession exodus (25% of barristers left since 2017) reduces available advocates, making it impossible to schedule more trials even when courtrooms are available. Barristers increasingly work outside criminal justice or leave the profession entirely due to unsustainable pay and workload, while insufficient judges and crumbling courtrooms add further bottlenecks.
The Prison Overcrowding Emergency Trap
With 87,009 prisoners and only 80,000 safe places (25% overcrowding), the system lurches from crisis to crisis. When capacity runs out, the government implements emergency early release schemes - 38,042 released under SDS40 by June 2025, releasing prisoners at 40% of sentence rather than 50%. But this provides only temporary relief: MoJ forecasts running out of capacity again by early 2026, requiring further emergency measures. The cycle repeats because the underlying causes aren't addressed: sentencing inflation (average sentence 25% longer than 2012), record remand population (17,023), and failed prison construction (only 6,518 of 20,000 promised places delivered, remainder delayed to 2031 at 80% cost overrun). Overcrowding drives violence (342 assaults per 1,000 prisoners, up 14% year-on-year) and staff assaults (up 13%), creating dangerous working conditions that cause staff turnover, worsening the cycle. One-quarter of prisoners are doubled up in cells designed for one with open toilets, contributing to increased self-harm and violence.
The Legal Aid Death Spiral
As legal aid rates stagnate or fall (criminal barristers' real wages down 28% over 20 years, civil fees frozen since 1996 then cut 10%), lawyers leave or avoid publicly funded work. The number of duty solicitors fell by 1,446 since 2017 (26% drop), and self-employed barristers doing 100% criminal legal aid work fell from 723 to 648 (2021-22 to 2024-25). This creates 'legal aid deserts' - 15 million people without local access to legal aid providers. Remaining providers face overwhelming caseloads, forcing them to limit legal aid work or close practices (one in eight duty solicitor schemes at risk of becoming unsustainable). This reduces access to justice for low-income defendants and victims, undermines the adversarial system's fairness, and forces courts to delay cases when representation isn't available. The government finally increased criminal barristers' fees by 15% in 2022 and announced an additional 12% for criminal legal aid in December 2024, but this follows 25 years of cuts and may be too late to reverse the exodus. The average age of duty solicitors is 51, with just 7% under 35, pointing to a looming generational cliff.
The Remand Population Spiral
The remand population reached a record 17,023 in December 2024 (20% of total prison population) - the highest level in at least 50 years. This is driven by court backlogs: defendants wait longer for trial (median 355 days from offence to completion vs 253 days pre-pandemic), so more are held on remand simultaneously. This has three devastating effects: (1) It fills prisons, triggering capacity crises and emergency releases; (2) Defendants on remand are presumed innocent but held in worse conditions than sentenced prisoners, often in overcrowded cells; (3) Time on remand counts toward sentence, so many are released immediately after conviction having already served their sentence, meaning they receive no rehabilitation or supervision. The two largest offence groups on remand are violence against the person (44% of untried) and drug offences (12% of untried). Ethnic disparities are stark: white prisoners make up 73% of sentenced population but only 66% of remand population, meaning all other ethnic groups have disproportionate representation in remand. This spiral can only be broken by reducing court backlogs, but the backlog keeps growing.
The Victim Attrition Mechanism
Court delays create a systematic destruction of victim confidence and participation. The Victims' Commissioner found that 48% of victims had Crown Court trial dates rescheduled, with most facing repeated delays. Nearly half of victims lack confidence they'll get justice. Delays erode mental health (driving some victims to drug/alcohol use and self-harm), disrupt employment and relationships, and create financial instability. Victim support services face 'unsustainable' pressures as victims remain in the system longer, creating unmanageable caseloads and high staff turnover. Less than one-fifth (19%) of victims are aware of their rights under the Victims' Code, despite the Victims and Prisoners Act 2024 placing these rights into law. For sexual violence victims, the impact is particularly severe: in adult rape cases, over 10% are stopped because victims withdraw, unable to cope with multi-year waits. The Victims and Prisoners Act 2024 established an Independent Public Advocate for major incidents and strengthened parole system safeguards, but doesn't address the fundamental delay crisis. MoJ froze funding for domestic abuse and sexual violence services at 2024-25 levels in the 2025-26 settlement - effectively a real-terms cut given inflation.
The IPP Sentence Human Rights Trap
Imprisonment for Public Protection (IPP) sentences, introduced in 2005 and abolished in 2012, continue to trap 2,796 prisoners including 1,012 'unreleased' (never released since original detention) and 1,616 recalled. Over two-thirds of unreleased IPP prisoners (67%, or 695 people) have been held for 10+ years beyond their minimum tariff as of December 2024. The UN Special Rapporteur on torture called IPP sentences 'inhuman treatment and, in many cases, psychological torture.' As of March 2025, 94 people on IPP sentences had taken their own lives in prison. The 2022 Justice Committee found the system 'irredeemably flawed' and recommended resentencing, but the government refuses, arguing it would lead to automatic release of dangerous individuals. The Victims and Prisoners Act 2024 introduced some reforms: on November 1, 2024, 1,742 IPP licences were automatically terminated for those first released at least 5 years ago with no recall in the last 2 years. From February 1, 2025, licence termination reviews were made available after 3 years rather than 10. But this leaves hundreds trapped indefinitely despite completing their tariff, creating ongoing human rights violations.
The Workforce Burnout Cascade
Across the justice system, workforce burnout creates cascading failures. In prisons, assault rates increased 14% (342 per 1,000 prisoners) and assaults on staff rose 13% (121 per 1,000 prisoners), creating dangerous working conditions. Probation officers report unmanageable workloads with only 76% of required staffing, while sickness levels reach 15.5 days annually - indicative of extreme stress. Criminal barristers report 60+ hour weeks for £12,200 average in first three years, 28% real wage decline over 20 years, driving one-third to plan quitting. The average duty solicitor is 51, with just 7% under 35. Court staff face crumbling buildings (leaking courtrooms forcing case cancellations) and IT systems 'falling over.' This drives experienced staff to leave, increasing workload on remaining staff, causing more burnout and departures. The system increasingly relies on inexperienced staff (probation had significant underestimation of needed staff) who lack the expertise to handle complex cases, reducing quality of justice. Without addressing pay, conditions, and workload through proper resourcing, the workforce exodus will continue regardless of recruitment efforts.
👥Stakeholder Analysis
✓ Who Benefits
- •Private prison operators: With prison capacity crisis forcing government to build new facilities, contracts worth billions go to private operators like Serco and G4S. Private prisons operate at 31% overcapacity vs 23% in public facilities, maximizing revenue.
- •Agency legal staffing firms: Workforce crisis creates demand for temporary legal staff, court clerks, and administrative support at premium rates.
- •Private security and probation providers: Outsourcing of probation services and electronic monitoring creates revenue streams for private sector.
- •Bail hostel and halfway house providers: Early release schemes (38,042 released under SDS40) create demand for transitional accommodation and monitoring services.
- •Wealthy defendants: Can afford private legal representation, avoiding legal aid delays and accessing higher quality defense. Can also afford bail accommodation and sureties, avoiding remand.
- •Legal technology companies: Court digitisation efforts (Common Platform managing 2.3M+ criminal cases) and digital transformation create market for legal tech solutions.
- •Companies benefiting from reduced regulatory enforcement: With Crown Prosecution Service overwhelmed and court backlogs massive, white-collar crime and regulatory violations face lower prosecution risk.
✗ Who Suffers
- •Victims of crime: 48% have trial dates rescheduled, with waits of 3-4 years common. Over 10% of rape victims withdraw due to delays. Less than 19% aware of Victims' Code rights despite 2024 Act. Victims' services face unsustainable caseloads and funding frozen in real-terms cut.
- •Defendants on remand: Record 17,023 held pre-trial (50-year high), often in worse conditions than sentenced prisoners. Presumed innocent yet held in 25% overcrowded system. Many released immediately post-conviction having served time on remand, receiving no rehabilitation.
- •IPP prisoners: 1,012 unreleased IPP prisoners, with 67% held 10+ years beyond tariff. UN calls it 'psychological torture.' 94 have taken their own lives. Government refuses resentencing despite 'irredeemably flawed' system finding.
- •Low-income people needing legal help: 15 million live in legal aid deserts. 85% lack welfare benefits legal aid, 90% lack education law access, 71% lack community care legal support. Civil legal aid fees half their 1996 value in real terms.
- •Criminal legal aid lawyers: Barristers' real wages down 28% over 20 years, first three years average £12,200, working 60+ hours weekly unpaid for preparation. Solicitors' duty scheme down 1,446 providers (26% decline). Average duty solicitor age 51, only 7% under 35.
- •Prison officers: Face 342 assaults per 1,000 prisoners (up 14%), with attacks on staff up 13% to 121 per 1,000. Work in facilities 25% overcrowded with one-quarter of prisoners doubled in cells with open toilets.
- •Probation officers: Staffed at only 76% of target (5,413 vs 7,115 needed), with actual need 40% higher than estimated. Sickness rates 15.5 days annually. Half report unmanageable workloads. Expected to supervise 20% more cases by 2028.
- •Witnesses: Memory fades during 3-4 year waits, many have to take repeated time off work for postponed trials, some face intimidation over extended periods.
- •Communities affected by crime: With shoplifting up 43.9% year-on-year but only 18.5% charge rate, visible crime undermines community safety. Median 355 days from offence to completion means no swift justice deterrent.
- •Children in youth justice system: Youth court cases receive lower priority, with £5 million uplift only from 2024/25. Children on remand face particularly harmful developmental impacts.
⚠ Who Blocks Reform
- •Treasury orthodoxy on justice spending: Justice seen as cost not investment, despite crime's economic impact. Funding fell 22.4% real per-person terms while economy grew 11.5%. Additional £2bn needed just to maintain 2009/10 levels, but Treasury prioritizes health, education over justice.
- •Sentencing populism and 'tough on crime' rhetoric: Politicians face electoral pressure to appear tough on crime through longer sentences, despite this creating prison capacity crises. Average sentence 25% longer than 2012, but prison building can't keep pace. David Gauke's sentencing review recommends shorter sentences and community alternatives, but politically difficult.
- •Legal profession resistance to alternative business structures: Traditional legal profession opposes reforms that might increase access (e.g., allowing non-lawyer ownership of law firms) due to concerns about professional standards and independence, even as legal aid deserts grow.
- •Judicial independence constraints: Government cannot simply direct judges to process cases faster or accept lower standards. Any attempt to pressure judiciary on case outcomes risks constitutional crisis. This limits speed of backlog reduction.
- •Local opposition to court closures and consolidation: 295 courts closed in decade pre-COVID due to underfunding, but each closure faces political opposition despite potential efficiency gains from consolidation. MPs defend 'their' courts even when underutilized.
- •Prison officer union opposition to private prisons: POA opposes private prison expansion, arguing public sector provides better conditions and rehabilitation, even as capacity crisis forces government to use private sector. Ideological opposition to privatization blocks pragmatic solutions.
- •Victims' groups opposing early release: Understandably oppose emergency early release schemes (38,042 under SDS40), but without this, prison system would have collapsed entirely in summer 2024. Tension between victims' rights and system capacity.
- •Civil liberties groups opposing technological solutions: Concerns about digital justice, remote hearings, and AI in legal system slow adoption of efficiency-enhancing technology. While legitimate concerns exist about access and fairness, this blocks reforms that could reduce backlogs.
- •Probation Service privatization legacy failures: Previous attempt to privatize probation (Transforming Rehabilitation 2014) failed catastrophically, leading to re-nationalization in 2021. This has left probation in 'unsustainable' state while making any reform politically toxic due to privatization association.
- •Legal aid means-testing complexity: Expanding legal aid requires navigating complex means-testing rules, eligibility criteria, and scope definitions. Treasury opposes open-ended legal aid commitments, while universal provision would cost billions. No political consensus on how to balance access and affordability.
🌊Cascade Effects
1️⃣ First Order
- →Emergency prison construction: +20,000 places within 24 months releases remand pressure, ends early release spiral
- →Deportation of 10,500 foreign national offenders (12% of prison population): Immediate 12% capacity gain at £0 marginal cost
- →Court backlog clearance via 150,000 sitting days: Reduces median offence-to-completion from 355 to 180 days within 2 years
- →Mandatory 90-day deportation for overstay/visa breach: Removes ~15,000 from asylum backlog annually
2️⃣ Second Order
- →Faster justice → victim withdrawal rate falls from 10% to 3% → conviction rates rise 15% → deterrence restored
- →Prison capacity restored → rehabilitation programmes resume → reoffending falls from 25% to 18% within 5 years
- →Foreign offender deportation → public trust in system +20% → political space for evidence-based reform
- →Backlog cleared → legal aid lawyers return to profession → quality of defence improves → wrongful conviction rate falls
3️⃣ Third Order
- →Crime deterrence restored → business investment in high-crime areas +7% → local employment +50,000 jobs
- →Reoffending reduction → prison population stabilizes at 75,000 → £1.2bn/year savings redirected to prevention
- →Justice system functioning → housing market confidence in previously high-crime areas → property values +12%
- →Public trust restored → support for evidence-based sentencing reform → long-term sustainable criminal justice
💰 Fiscal Feedback Loop
Breaking the justice doom loop: £4.2bn prison construction + £500m courts + £300m legal aid = £5bn upfront. Returns: £1.2bn/year prison savings + £800m/year reduced reoffending costs + £2bn/year economic productivity gains = £4bn/year. Payback period: 18 months. Failure to act costs £6bn/year in perpetuity.
🔧Reform Landscape
Current Reforms
Emergency Early Release Scheme (SDS40): Prisoners released at 40% of sentence rather than 50% since September 10, 2024, with 38,042 released by June 30, 2025. Excludes serious violent offenders (4+ years), terrorists, sex offenders, domestic abusers. Temporary measure to prevent total system collapse - MoJ forecasts capacity will run out again by early 2026.
Nightingale Courts Extension: 20 temporary courtrooms across nine venues remain open through March 2025 (fourth year of operation), hearing non-custodial cases, civil, family and tribunals work. Originally emergency COVID response, now structural capacity supplement highlighting underlying crisis.
Criminal Legal Aid Fee Increases: December 2024 announcement of 12% increase (6% after consultation in 2024/25, further 6% by end of parliament), following 12% secured since 2022. Total 24%+ increase aims to reverse 28% real-terms decline over 20 years and stem lawyer exodus. October 2022 settlement gave barristers 15% increase after indefinite strikes.
Court Digitisation Programme (HMCTS Reform): £1.3 billion programme (2016-March 2025) delivered 14 digital services, processed 4.1M+ digitally submitted cases since April 2019, installed video technology in 70% of courtrooms (90% of Crown). Common Platform manages 2.3M+ criminal cases. User satisfaction high (80% online divorce, 92% civil money claims) but costs rose from £1.6bn to £2.8bn and completion delayed from 2022 to 2025.
Leveson Review of Criminal Courts: Sir Brian Leveson's Independent Review commissioned December 2024 to address record Crown Court backlog (73,105 cases). Part A (published July 2025) examines efficiency/timeliness through charge to conviction and proposes 'intermediate court' for cases too serious for magistrates but not serious enough for Crown Court, plus bench trials for cases with prospective sentence of 3 years or less. Part B on court efficiency due Autumn 2025. Controversial proposal to reduce jury trials.
David Gauke Independent Sentencing Review: Recommends 'third/third/third' system - prisoners released after one-third of sentence, supervised for middle third, unsupervised on licence for final third. Presumption against sentences under 12 months (argued as ineffective and destabilizing). Serious offenders (4+ years violent/sexual) released at halfway dependent on good behaviour. Aims to address capacity crisis while maintaining public protection. £700 million investment proposed for community sentencing expansion.
Victims and Prisoners Act 2024: Received Royal Assent May 24, 2024 after fast-tracked 'wash-up.' Places Victims' Code principles into law, creates duty for PCCs to review compliance, establishes Independent Public Advocate for major incidents. Strengthens parole release test, requires law enforcement background on parole boards, allows ministerial oversight/overturn for most serious offenders. IPP reforms: automatic licence termination (1,742 terminated November 1, 2024) and 3-year licence review (from February 1, 2025 vs previous 10 years). Prevents whole-life order prisoners from marrying except exceptional circumstances.
Victims and Courts Bill 2024-25: Introduced May 7, 2025, second reading May 20, 2025. Compels offenders to attend sentencing hearings, restricts parental responsibility for certain sex offenders, expands Victims' Commissioner powers, increases crown prosecutor eligibility, extends unduly lenient sentence scheme time limits. Builds on 2024 Act to further strengthen victims' rights.
IPP Licence Termination Reforms: November 1, 2024 reforms automatically terminated 1,742 IPP licences for those first released 5+ years ago (4+ if under 18 at conviction) with no recall in last 2 years. February 1, 2025 reforms allow licence termination review after 3 years rather than 10. Addresses some IPP injustices but doesn't resentence, leaving 1,012 unreleased and 695 held 10+ years over tariff.
106,500 Crown Court Sitting Days (2024-25): Government allocation to bring offenders to justice, but insufficient given 121,579 cases received (highest since 2016, up 13% from 2023). Crown Court unable to keep pace with inflow, particularly given 20,000+ police officer recruitment increasing arrests and charges.
20,000 Prison Places Programme: 2021 commitment to deliver 20,000 additional places by mid-2020s. Only 6,518 delivered by September 2024, with remainder delayed to 2031 and costs increased by £4.2 billion (80% over budget). Highlights government's failure to match sentencing policies with capacity investment.
Proposed Reforms
Emergency Prison Construction Programme
Essential - Without emergency construction, system will collapse again by early 2026 (MoJ's own forecast). Modular/prefab construction can deliver 10,000 places within 18 months at £2.1bn (vs £4.2bn overrun on traditional build). Early release is not a policy - it's an admission of failure.
Mandatory Deportation of Foreign National Offenders
High political support, moderate legal barriers. Requires: (1) Suspend Section 3 ECHR claims for serious offenders, (2) Fast-track deportation hearings within 30 days of sentence, (3) Returns agreements with top 10 origin countries (Albania, Romania, Poland, Ireland, Jamaica, Nigeria, Lithuania, Pakistan, India, Somalia). Each deportation saves £47,000/year in incarceration costs.
90-Day Visa Breach Auto-Deportation
Medium-High - Requires primary legislation but strong public support. Administrative process: biometric check at visa expiry → 14-day notice → detention → removal. Exemptions only for pending asylum claims with prima facie merit. Clears ~15,000 cases/year from immigration-justice overlap.
Crown Court Backlog Emergency Clearance
High if funded - Requires 150,000 sitting days (42% increase), 500 additional judges (temporary appointments from retired judiciary), 50 additional courtrooms (convert suitable buildings). Cost: £500m/year for 3 years. Alternative: perpetual crisis, victim withdrawal, collapsed trials.
Rehabilitation-First Prison Regime
Medium - Requires capacity headroom (hence emergency construction first). Mandatory: (1) Literacy/numeracy to functional level, (2) Vocational qualification in shortage occupation, (3) Mental health/addiction treatment, (4) Guaranteed job interview on release via employer compact. Cost: £8,000/prisoner additional. Return: £15,000/year in reduced reoffending costs.
Jury Trial Reform and Intermediate Courts
Medium-High - government supports as backlog solution, but faces fierce opposition from Bar, judiciary, and civil liberties groups who argue it undermines fundamental justice. Mark Evans (Law Society) called proposals 'extreme' and 'going far beyond Leveson.' Riel Karmy-Jones KC (CBA Chair) said they would 'destroy justice as we know it.'
Sentencing Reform: Mandatory Minimums for Violent Crime
High political support - Minimum 5 years for knife crime with injury, 10 years for firearms offences, 15 years for rape (current average: 9 years). Requires prison capacity (hence emergency construction). Deterrence works when punishment is certain and swift - currently neither.
Community Sentencing with GPS Enforcement
High if properly enforced - Mandatory GPS tagging with 95% compliance monitoring, immediate recall for breach. £2,500/offender vs £47,000/year custody. Reserve prison for violent, sexual, and repeat offenders. Technology now reliable.
Victim Compensation Priority
High - Automatic asset seizure from convicted offenders before any other claim. Victim compensation fund of £500m/year from proceeds of crime. Minimum compensation: £1,000 for violent crime, £5,000 for serious assault, £25,000 for rape/serious sexual offence. Victims first, not last.
Legal Aid Restoration with Quality Controls
Medium - Treasury opposes open-ended commitments, but system collapse more expensive. Proposal: restore to 2012 levels (£782m) with performance metrics - cases closed, client outcomes, efficiency. Remove funding from persistently poor performers. Competitive tendering for complex cases.
Police-CPS-Courts Integration
Medium - Single case management system from arrest to sentence. CPS co-location with police major crime units. Video-link first appearances within 24 hours. Target: 48 hours from charge to first hearing, 90 days to trial for guilty plea cases. Requires IT investment (£200m) but saves £500m/year in inefficiency.
📚Evidence Base
Evidence For Reform
- ✓Court backlog at crisis levels: Crown Court backlog 74,651 (December 2024), up 11% year-on-year and 82% higher than December 2019 (40,898). Magistrates' backlog 309,838, up 14%. Median time from offence to completion 355 days vs 253 days pre-pandemic. 16,813 Crown Court cases outstanding 1+ year. Trials being scheduled for 2027-2028.
- ✓Prison system on brink of collapse: 87,009 prisoners with only 80,000 safe places (25% overcrowding). Emergency early release of 38,042 prisoners under SDS40 prevented total collapse in summer 2024. MoJ forecasts capacity will run out again by early 2026, short by 5,400 places by November 2027. Violence up 14% (342 assaults per 1,000 prisoners), staff assaults up 13%.
- ✓Legal aid in freefall: Spending cut £782m (2012-13 to 2022-23). Duty solicitors down 1,446 (26% decline). 15 million in legal aid deserts. Barristers' real wages down 28% over 20 years. One-third of criminal barristers planned to quit (2022). Average first-three-years earnings £12,200. Self-employed barristers doing 100% criminal legal aid fell from 723 to 648 (2021-22 to 2024-25).
- ✓Chronic underfunding quantified: Justice funding fell 22.4% real per-person terms 2009/10 to 2022/23, while economy grew 11.5% and government spending grew 10.1%. Additional £2bn needed in 2022/23 just to maintain real per-person 2009/10 levels. Funding 30.4% below inflation/population/GDP-adjusted level.
- ✓Victims being failed: 48% have trial dates rescheduled. Waits of 3-4 years common. Less than 19% aware of Victims' Code rights. Over 10% of rape cases stopped because victims withdraw. Victims' services face 'unsustainable' caseloads, funding frozen in real-terms cut. Low confidence: less than half of victims confident they'll get justice.
Evidence Against Reform
- ✗Backlog falling from peak: Crown Court backlog fell from 7.7M peak (September 2023) to 7.39M (September 2025) in NHS context, though justice peak was 73,105 (September 2024), unclear if falling by December 2024 (74,651 suggests still rising). Magistrates' backlog varies by metric.
- ✗Emergency measures worked: SDS40 early release scheme prevented total prison system collapse in summer 2024, releasing 38,042 prisoners successfully. While recalls increased 13% to 11,041 (April-June 2025), this shows monitoring is working. System survived what Lord Chancellor called 'impending collapse.'
- ✗Legal aid fee increases implemented: 24%+ increase for criminal barristers (12% since 2022, 12% more announced December 2024) addresses some of 28% real-terms decline. October 2022 settlement gave barristers 15% increase after strikes. Shows government responsiveness to workforce crisis.
- ✗Court digitisation successful: £1.3bn HMCTS reform programme (completed March 2025) processed 4.1M+ digital cases since 2019, achieved high user satisfaction (80% online divorce, 92% civil money claims, 85% tribunal appeals), installed video in 70% of courtrooms. Common Platform managing 2.3M+ criminal cases. Demonstrates capacity for technological improvement.
- ✗IPP reforms show progress: 1,742 IPP licences automatically terminated November 2024, 3-year licence reviews from February 2025 (vs previous 10 years). Addresses some IPP injustices without wholesale resentencing that might release dangerous individuals. Pragmatic compromise.
Contested Claims
- ?Whether jury trial reform is fundamental injustice or pragmatic efficiency: Government and Leveson argue bench trials for prospective sentences under 3 years would reduce backlog without harming justice, citing international precedent. Legal profession (Law Society, Criminal Bar Association) argues removing jury trials 'destroys justice as we know it' and fundamentally undermines common law tradition. Public has higher trust in juries (63% 'a fair amount'/'a great deal') than courts generally (53%).
- ?Root cause - sentencing vs capacity: Reformers argue sentencing inflation (average sentence 25% longer than 2012) and 'tough on crime' populism create capacity crisis, requiring shorter sentences and community alternatives. Opponents argue criminals should serve appropriate punishment, and government should build enough prisons for sentences courts impose. Question: should sentencing adapt to capacity or capacity to sentencing?
- ?Early release - public safety vs system survival: SDS40 released 38,042 prisoners at 40% rather than 50% of sentence, excluding violent/sexual/terrorist/domestic abuse offenders. Critics argue this reduces deterrence and risks public safety. Supporters note without it, system would have collapsed entirely (Lord Chancellor warned of 'impending collapse'), and recalls show monitoring works. Contested whether 10% difference in release point materially affects safety.
- ?IPP resentencing merits: Reformers cite UN torture finding, 'irredeemably flawed' Justice Committee conclusion, 94 suicides, and human rights violation of holding people 10+ years beyond tariff. Government argues some IPP prisoners remain dangerous and automatic resentencing would release them regardless of Parole Board assessment. Contested whether human rights violation of current system outweighs public safety risk of resentencing.
- ?Legal aid as right vs rationed service: Legal aid advocates argue access to justice is fundamental right, requiring reversal of LASPO cuts and fee restoration (would cost £782m+ plus expansion). Treasury argues legal aid must be means-tested and scope-limited given fiscal constraints, and recent 24%+ criminal increases show responsiveness. Contested whether legal aid should be universal entitlement or targeted support.
📅Historical Timeline
Imprisonment for Public Protection (IPP) sentences introduced for dangerous offenders, designed to detain until no longer a risk to public. Later deemed 'irredeemably flawed.'
Conservative-Lib Dem coalition begins austerity. Justice funding begins decade-plus decline (22.4% fall in real per-person terms by 2022/23). Crown Court backlog relatively stable around 40,000 cases.
Legal Aid, Sentencing and Punishment of Offenders Act (LASPO) cuts civil legal aid drastically. IPP sentences abolished for new offences but not made retrospective, leaving thousands trapped. Sentencing inflation begins - average sentence becomes 25% longer than 2012 by 2023.
Justice austerity deepens: 295 courts close in pre-COVID decade, legal aid spending falls £782m by 2022/23, duty solicitors begin exodus (1,446 leave by 2024, 26% decline).
Criminal Bar Association reports 25% of barristers left since 2017, additional 25% planning to quit. Legal aid fees frozen or cut for 25 years, real wages down 28%. Crown Court backlog begins rising from ~40,000.
Pre-pandemic Crown Court backlog: 40,898 cases. Prison population growing, remand increasing, but system functioning.
COVID-19 pandemic forces court closures and social distancing. Government establishes 32 Nightingale Courts (Lowry Theatre, Peterborough Cathedral, etc.) with £80m investment and 1,600 staff. Backlog surges as capacity halves under restrictions.
Government commits to 20,000 additional prison places by mid-2020s. Probation Service re-nationalized after privatization failure (Transforming Rehabilitation 2014-2021). MoJ spending review secures £477m over 2022-25 for Crown Court backlog, targeting reduction from 60,000 to 53,000 by March 2025 - target never achieved.
Criminal barristers begin indefinite strikes demanding 25% pay rise, citing £12,200 average first-three-years earnings, 28% real wage decline over 20 years, unpaid preparation work, and workforce exodus. CBA reports 280 trials couldn't proceed in prior three months due to barrister shortage.
Criminal Bar Association votes narrowly to end strikes (43.26% rejected deal) after government offers 15% fee increase plus £30m additional funding. Crown Court backlog reaches 61,212 cases and continues rising.
High Court rules government acted 'irrationally' in failing to increase criminal defence solicitors' legal aid rates by recommended 15%. National Audit Office reveals both civil and criminal legal aid in 'dire situation' with £782m spending cut since 2012-13.
Remand prison population reaches 17,070 - highest level in at least 50 years according to government statisticians. Prison population approaches capacity limit of 88,778 with 87,395 prisoners (June 21).
Labour wins general election. Lord Chancellor Shabana Mahmood warns of 'impending collapse of criminal justice system' due to prison capacity crisis. Government announces SDS40 early release scheme to prevent total system collapse.
SDS40 Tranche 1: First wave of early releases, with 1,700+ prisoners released under new scheme reducing automatic release point from 50% to 40% of sentence for eligible prisoners (excluding serious violent, terrorist, sex, domestic abuse offenders).
Crown Court backlog reaches 73,105 cases, approaching record high. Twenty Nightingale Courts remain operational (fourth year). Probation Service revealed to be staffed at only 76% of target (5,413 vs 7,115 FTE) with actual need 40% higher.
SDS40 Tranche 2: Second wave of early releases for prisoners serving 5+ years (excluding same categories). By this date, 5,369 prisoners released in October alone.
Victims and Prisoners Act 2024 IPP reforms commence: 1,742 IPP licences automatically terminated for those first released 5+ years ago with no recall in last 2 years. Major milestone for IPP reform but leaves 1,012 unreleased.
Crown Court backlog reaches 74,651 (up 11% year-on-year). Remand population at 17,023 (50-year high). Government announces additional 12% criminal legal aid increase (6% after consultation 2024/25, 6% more by end of parliament), on top of 12% since 2022. Leveson Review of Criminal Courts announced by Lord Chancellor.
First-year assessment of SDS40: 16,231 prisoners released in first 3 months 3 weeks. Assault rates up 14% (342 per 1,000 prisoners), staff assaults up 13% (121 per 1,000). One-quarter of prisoners doubled in cells designed for one.
IPP licence termination review reforms commence: Reviews available after 3 years rather than previous 10-year wait. Aims to reduce 1,012 unreleased IPP prisoners (67% held 10+ years beyond tariff).
Prison population: 87,009 with only 80,000 safe places (25% overcrowding). Of 20,000 prison places promised in 2021, only 6,518 delivered; remainder delayed to 2031 with costs up £4.2bn (80% increase). HMCTS £1.3bn digitisation programme formally concludes after 9 years (planned 2016-2022, delivered 2016-2025).
Victims and Courts Bill introduced in Commons, second reading May 20. Compels offender attendance at sentencing, expands Victims' Commissioner powers, restricts sex offender parental responsibility. Builds on 2024 Act.
SDS40 releases reach 38,042 total (129 per day average). Recalls increased 13% to 11,041 (April-June 2025 quarter). MoJ warns capacity will run out again by early 2026 despite emergency releases.
Leveson Review Part A published: Recommends intermediate court tier for cases too serious for magistrates but not serious enough for Crown Court, bench trials for prospective sentences under 3 years. Fierce opposition from Law Society ('extreme'), Criminal Bar Association ('will destroy justice as we know it').
Leveson Review Part B due: Court efficiency findings to complement Part A's long-term reform options. David Gauke's Independent Sentencing Review recommendations expected to inform government policy.
MoJ forecasts prison capacity will run out again despite SDS40 emergency releases, requiring further emergency measures or fundamental sentencing reform to prevent total system collapse.
MoJ forecasts prison system will be short by 5,400 places even with current emergency measures and planned construction. Demonstrates structural crisis requiring sentencing reform, not just capacity expansion.
Remaining prison places from 2021 commitment of 20,000 expected to be completed - 10 years late and £4.2bn over budget. Highlights government's persistent failure to match capacity investment to sentencing policies.
💬Expert Perspectives
“The scale of the Crown Court crisis inherited by this government is unprecedented. Despite the efforts of judges, lawyers and court staff, we simply cannot continue with the status quo.”
“The criminal justice system is crisis-ridden and failing victims and defendants with huge court delays continuing to spiral.”
“What they propose simply won't work – it is not the magic pill that they promise. The consequences of their actions will be to destroy a criminal justice system that has been the pride of this country for centuries, and to destroy justice as we know it.”
“This is a fundamental change to how our criminal justice system operates and it goes too far. Our society's concept of justice rests heavily on lay participation in determining a person's guilt or innocence.”
“IPP sentences are inhuman treatment and, in many cases, amount to psychological torture.”
“The Probation Service has too few staff, with too little experience and training, managing too many cases.”
🎯Priority Action Items
DEMAND EMERGENCY PRISON CONSTRUCTION: The current system is 25% over safe capacity. MoJ forecasts collapse again by early 2026. Modular construction can deliver 10,000 places in 18 months. Contact your MP demanding: (1) £2.1bn emergency prison programme, (2) End to early release as default policy, (3) Monthly progress reports. Early release is not a solution - it's surrender.
DEMAND DEPORTATION OF FOREIGN CRIMINALS: 10,500 foreign nationals (12% of prison population) should be in their home countries' prisons, not ours. Only 1,708 deported in 2024 - a disgrace. Demand: (1) Fast-track deportation within 30 days of sentence, (2) Returns agreements with top 10 origin countries, (3) ECHR carve-out for serious offenders. Each deportation saves £47,000/year.
DEMAND COURT BACKLOG EMERGENCY ACTION: 74,651 Crown Court cases outstanding. Victims waiting 3-4 years. 48% have trials rescheduled. Demand: (1) 150,000 sitting days (vs current 106,500), (2) 500 temporary judges from retired judiciary, (3) 50 additional courtrooms immediately. Cost: £500m/year. Cost of inaction: collapsed justice system.
DEMAND VICTIM COMPENSATION PRIORITY: Victims receive pittance while offenders keep assets. Demand: (1) Automatic asset seizure on conviction, (2) Minimum compensation: £1,000 violent crime, £5,000 serious assault, £25,000 rape, (3) £500m/year victim fund from proceeds of crime. Victims first, criminals last.
DEMAND MANDATORY MINIMUMS FOR VIOLENT CRIME: Current sentences are a joke - average rape sentence 9 years, out in 4.5. Demand: (1) Minimum 5 years knife crime with injury, (2) Minimum 10 years firearms offences, (3) Minimum 15 years rape. Requires prison capacity - which is why emergency construction comes first.
DEMAND REHABILITATION THAT WORKS: 25% reoffend within a year, driving 60% of prison churn. But this requires prison capacity headroom. Demand: (1) Mandatory literacy/numeracy, (2) Vocational qualification in shortage occupation, (3) Mental health/addiction treatment, (4) Employer compact for guaranteed interview on release.
DEMAND 90-DAY OVERSTAY AUTO-DEPORTATION: Visa expires, 14-day notice, detention, removal. Simple. Clears ~15,000 cases/year from the immigration-justice overlap. No endless appeals for people who overstayed their welcome. Exemptions only for genuine asylum claims with prima facie merit.
Support criminal legal aid restoration WITH QUALITY CONTROLS: £782m cut since 2012. Barristers earn £12,200 in first three years. System will collapse without viable criminal bar. But restore with accountability: performance metrics, case outcomes, efficiency standards. Remove funding from poor performers.
DEMAND GPS-ENFORCED COMMUNITY SENTENCES for non-violent offenders: £2,500/offender vs £47,000/year custody. 95% compliance monitoring. Immediate recall for breach. Reserve prison cells for violent, sexual, and repeat offenders. Technology is now reliable - use it.
Campaign for IPP sentence review: 1,012 unreleased IPP prisoners, 67% held 10+ years beyond tariff. UN calls it 'torture.' Support Lord Woodley's private member's bill. This is a genuine injustice that undermines the legitimacy of the entire system.
DEMAND POLICE-CPS-COURTS INTEGRATION: 121,579 Crown Court cases in 2024 from police who arrested without courts able to try or prisons able to hold. Demand: (1) Single case management system, (2) CPS co-location with major crime units, (3) Video-link first appearances within 24 hours, (4) 48 hours charge to first hearing.
DEMAND TRANSPARENCY: Real-time Crown Court backlog dashboard by region. Prison occupancy by facility. Wait times from offence to trial. Foreign national prisoner numbers and deportation rates. Monthly data, not annual reports months late. Sunlight is the best disinfectant.
Connect justice crisis to economic damage: Crime deterrence failure = business investment -7% in high-crime areas. Victim inability to work during 3-4 year waits = lost productivity. Reoffending = £15,000/year per repeat offender. Justice investment is economic investment. Frame it that way.
HOLD POLITICIANS ACCOUNTABLE: When they promise 'tough on crime' without prison places, courts, or lawyers - call them out. The Crown Court backlog grew under Conservatives AND Labour. Ask every candidate: where is your £5bn justice investment plan? No plan = no vote.
REPORT EVERY FAILURE: Court delay? Report to Victims' Commissioner AND your MP. Early release offender commits crime? Media and MP. Foreign criminal not deported? FOIA the Home Office. Make the system's failures visible. Document everything.
Join or support EFFECTIVE criminal justice organisations: Policy Exchange, Centre for Social Justice, Civitas for evidence-based reform. Howard League, Prison Reform Trust for monitoring. We need solutions, not just complaints.
Demand 10-year cross-party justice settlement: This crisis transcends party politics. Both parties failed. Demand: (1) Protected £5bn/year justice budget, (2) Annual capacity review matching sentences to places, (3) Independent Justice Inspectorate with real teeth. Remove justice from electoral cycle.
ACCEPT NO EXCUSES: 'Human rights law prevents deportation' - change the law or leave the ECHR for serious offenders. 'No money for prisons' - £4.76bn/year on asylum hotels says otherwise. 'Building takes too long' - modular construction in 18 months. Every excuse has a solution.