⚠️
CONTESTED ESTIMATE
Significant methodological disputes. View caveats below.
🚇Infra
Infrastructure Fast Track
Upfront
+£1.2bn
Annual
-£5.0bn
Revenue
+£12.0bn
Net Annual Effect
+£7.0bn/year
Payback in 5 years
GDP +2.5%Productivity +0.4%very high uncertainty
UNCERTAINTY RANGE (Annual Net Effect)
Most Pessimistic
+£5.0bn
⟷
Most Optimistic
+£40.0bn
⚠️
MAJOR CAVEATS
- •UK planning uniquely slow: 4-7 years for major projects vs 18 months in Japan, 2 years in Germany
- •Previous reforms captured by incumbents: Planning Act 2008 added process without removing obstacles
- •Judicial review reform contested but UK abuse rate far exceeds other democracies
- •NIMBYism economically rational for homeowners - reform requires changing incentive structure not just rules
- •Construction capacity genuine constraint: skills shortage, materials costs, would limit short-term gains
- •Environmental assessment: 50 separate requirements vs single process in most countries - consolidation not abolition
- •HS2 failure was management/scope creep, not planning speed - wrong lesson to draw
3 sources
