👶Fertility
Childcare Fertility Expansion
Upfront
+£1.5bn
Annual
+£8.0bn
Revenue
+£3.5bn
Net Annual Effect
+£11.5bn/year
Payback in 4 years
GDP +0.6%Productivity +0.1%very high uncertainty
3 sources
← Back to Domains
Fertility
Demographics & Fertility
TFR
1.41 (lowest since 1938)
Replacement
2.08 needed
Childcare Cost
25-35% of income
25%Current
Potential: 55%
✗Key Problems
- 1.1.41 TFR - lowest since 1938, population decline trajectory
- 2.First-time buyer age 34 - can't afford house or kids
- 3.Childcare 25-35% income - highest in developed world
- 4.Hungary reversed to 1.59 with pro-family policy package
✓Solutions
- 1.£5,000/CHILD tax credit: Direct support (Hungary/Poland model)
- 2.HOUSING PRIORITY for families: 3+ bed fast-tracked (Singapore model)
- 3.FAMILY TAX RELIEF: Reduced rates for parents of 3+ (France model)
- 4.CHILDCARE EXPANSION: Universal access to age 3 (Nordic model)
🔬
Analysis
Root Causes
1
1.41 TFR - lowest since 1938, population decline trajectory
2
First-time buyer age 34 - can't afford house or kids
3
Childcare 25-35% income - highest in developed world
4
Hungary reversed to 1.59 with pro-family policy package
Reform Pathway
1
£5,000/CHILD tax credit: Direct support (Hungary/Poland model)
2
HOUSING PRIORITY for families: 3+ bed fast-tracked (Singapore model)
3
FAMILY TAX RELIEF: Reduced rates for parents of 3+ (France model)
4
CHILDCARE EXPANSION: Universal access to age 3 (Nordic model)
Cascade Effects
Reforms in Demographics & Fertility will have downstream effects on 4 connected domains:
Policy Costings
Rigorous fiscal analysis of Demographics & Fertility reforms
