⚠️
CONTESTED ESTIMATE
Significant methodological disputes. View caveats below.
🌿Environment
Net Zero Deregulation
Upfront
+£500m
Annual
-£15.0bn
Revenue
+£6.0bn
Net Annual Effect
-£9.0bn/year
Payback in 2 years
GDP +1.8%Productivity +0.3%very high uncertainty
UNCERTAINTY RANGE (Annual Net Effect)
Most Pessimistic
-£50.0bn
⟷
Most Optimistic
+£30.0bn
⚠️
MAJOR CAVEATS
- •Climate models have wide uncertainty ranges; damage estimates vary by 10x depending on discount rate assumptions
- •UK is 1% of global emissions - unilateral action has minimal climate impact but large economic cost
- •CCC/OBR models assume global coordination that is not occurring - China/India emissions rising
- •EU CBAM applies to some exports, but UK already deindustrialised - limited remaining exposure
- •Energy costs already 40-60% above EU competitors - further divergence accelerates deindustrialisation
- •Stranded asset argument applies both ways: £200bn+ sunk in intermittent renewables if nuclear/gas prove optimal
- •Track record: Net Zero policies to date have not reduced global emissions, only offshored UK production
- •Adaptation may prove more cost-effective than mitigation for 1% emitter
3 sources