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Interactive visualization of Britain's interconnected structural challenges and evidence-based reform pathways. Data from ONS, OBR, IFS, and authoritative sources.

Policy Costings

Rigorous, source-backed fiscal analysis of key policy reforms. Every costing includes central estimates, confidence ranges, methodology, and authoritative sources to help voters and MPs make informed decisions.

Total Upfront Cost
+£24.3bn
Net Annual Effect
-£39.0bn/yr
Total GDP Impact
+21.7%
Avg. Payback Period
2.9yr

Credibility Tier System

To ensure bombproof accuracy, each costing is assigned a credibility tier based on its source validation:

🟢
Tier 1: OBR-Endorsed
OBR-validated methodology
🔵
Tier 2: Authoritative Estimate
IFS, NIESR, Resolution Foundation analysis
🟡
Tier 3: Departmental/Academic
Government department or academic estimates
🟠
Tier 4: Comparable International
Based on outcomes in other countries
⚪
Tier 5: Illustrative
Order-of-magnitude estimate
Domain:
Credibility:
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17 Policies Costed

Showing all domains • Sorted by net cost

⚠️
CONTESTED ESTIMATE
Significant methodological disputes. View caveats below.
💰Fiscal

Laffer Curve Tax Cuts

Upfront
£0m
Annual
-£45.0bn
Revenue
+£7.5bn
Net Annual Effect
-£37.5bn/year
GDP +2%Productivity +0.4%very high uncertainty
UNCERTAINTY RANGE (Annual Net Effect)
Most Pessimistic
-£60.0bn
⟷
Most Optimistic
-£20.0bn
⚠️
MAJOR CAVEATS
  • •Static vs dynamic scoring contested: OBR uses static, but 2024-25 receipts below forecast after tax rises
  • •Laffer curve position uncertain: record millionaire exodus (UK now global leader) and non-dom flight suggest behavioural response stronger than models predict
  • •Elasticity assumptions vary widely: academic models (0.1-0.3) vs observed capital flight response
  • •International evidence mixed: Ireland corporate tax success, UK 50p rate underperformed, Kansas cuts failed (context-dependent)
  • •Transition costs real: static cost £40-50bn/yr requires offsetting measures or borrowing
  • •Counter-evidence: UK highest tax burden since 1948 correlates with stagnant growth, not revenue maximisation
4 sources
⚠️
CONTESTED ESTIMATE
Significant methodological disputes. View caveats below.
🧓Pensions

Accelerated Pension

Upfront
+£100m
Annual
-£22.0bn
Revenue
+£2.5bn
Net Annual Effect
-£19.5bn/year
Payback in 1 years
GDP +0.15%Productivity +0.05%very high uncertainty
UNCERTAINTY RANGE (Annual Net Effect)
Most Pessimistic
-£26.0bn
⟷
Most Optimistic
-£10.0bn
⚠️
MAJOR CAVEATS
  • •Relative poverty measure misleading: pensioners have highest median wealth of any age group (£500k+ for 65-74s)
  • •Triple lock has created massive intergenerational transfer: pensioners only group with rising real incomes 2010-2024
  • •Pension credit uptake only ~66% - reform should include automatic enrolment for poorest pensioners
  • •Political feasibility is genuine constraint: 75% pensioner turnout vs 47% under-30s creates democratic distortion
  • •Demand effects likely overstated: pensioners have low debt, high assets, can draw down wealth
  • •Status quo cost: triple lock projected to consume entire fiscal headroom growth to 2070
  • •Reform sequencing matters: increase pension credit take-up before or alongside triple lock changes
4 sourcesOBR-endorsed
🧓Pensions

Pension Triple Lock

Upfront
+£50m
Annual
-£15.5bn
Revenue
£0m
Net Annual Effect
-£15.5bn/year
Payback in 1 years
GDP +0.05%low uncertainty
2 sourcesOBR-endorsed
⚡Energy

Energy Price Decoupling

Upfront
+£800m
Annual
-£18.0bn
Revenue
+£3.0bn
Net Annual Effect
-£15.0bn/year
Payback in 1 years
GDP +1.2%Productivity +0.4%medium uncertainty
3 sources
⚠️
CONTESTED ESTIMATE
Significant methodological disputes. View caveats below.
🌿Environment

Net Zero Deregulation

Upfront
+£500m
Annual
-£15.0bn
Revenue
+£6.0bn
Net Annual Effect
-£9.0bn/year
Payback in 2 years
GDP +1.8%Productivity +0.3%very high uncertainty
UNCERTAINTY RANGE (Annual Net Effect)
Most Pessimistic
-£50.0bn
⟷
Most Optimistic
+£30.0bn
⚠️
MAJOR CAVEATS
  • •Climate models have wide uncertainty ranges; damage estimates vary by 10x depending on discount rate assumptions
  • •UK is 1% of global emissions - unilateral action has minimal climate impact but large economic cost
  • •CCC/OBR models assume global coordination that is not occurring - China/India emissions rising
  • •EU CBAM applies to some exports, but UK already deindustrialised - limited remaining exposure
  • •Energy costs already 40-60% above EU competitors - further divergence accelerates deindustrialisation
  • •Stranded asset argument applies both ways: £200bn+ sunk in intermittent renewables if nuclear/gas prove optimal
  • •Track record: Net Zero policies to date have not reduced global emissions, only offshored UK production
  • •Adaptation may prove more cost-effective than mitigation for 1% emitter
3 sources
🏥Health

Nhs Productivity

Upfront
+£3.0bn
Annual
-£12.0bn
Revenue
+£4.0bn
Net Annual Effect
-£8.0bn/year
Payback in 2 years
GDP +0.8%Productivity +0.2%high uncertainty
3 sources
🛡️Security

Chagos Surrender

Upfront
£0m
Annual
+£200m
Revenue
£0m
Net Annual Effect
+£200m/year
GDP +-0.01%medium uncertainty
3 sources
⚠️
CONTESTED ESTIMATE
Significant methodological disputes. View caveats below.
⚖️Justice

Justice Radical

Upfront
+£4.0bn
Annual
-£3.0bn
Revenue
+£4.5bn
Net Annual Effect
+£1.5bn/year
GDP +0.4%Productivity +0.1%very high uncertainty
UNCERTAINTY RANGE (Annual Net Effect)
Most Pessimistic
-£5.0bn
⟷
Most Optimistic
+£15.0bn
⚠️
MAJOR CAVEATS
  • •Certainty of punishment matters more than severity - but UK has 6% charge rate, undermining both
  • •UK incarceration rate (130/100k) far below US (500+) - diminishing returns argument less applicable
  • •Rehabilitation vs incapacitation: contested evidence, but early release schemes have increased reoffending
  • •Court digitisation risk real: HMCTS Common Platform has had significant problems
  • •Prison capacity constraint genuine: 99% occupancy means early release regardless of policy intent
  • •Police solve rate (6%) is the binding constraint - more prison places useless without arrests
  • •"Root causes" framing often becomes excuse for inaction; enforcement and social policy not mutually exclusive
3 sources
⚠️
CONTESTED ESTIMATE
Significant methodological disputes. View caveats below.
🗣️Speech

Free Speech Deregulation

Upfront
+£100m
Annual
-£200m
Revenue
+£2.0bn
Net Annual Effect
+£1.8bn/year
Payback in 3 years
GDP +0.4%Productivity +0.1%very high uncertainty
UNCERTAINTY RANGE (Annual Net Effect)
Most Pessimistic
-£5.0bn
⟷
Most Optimistic
+£8.0bn
⚠️
MAJOR CAVEATS
  • •Economic impact highly uncertain - both regulation costs and deregulation benefits contested
  • •UK already below US on speech protections; deregulation moves toward international norm, not outlier
  • •Platform self-regulation may continue regardless of law (advertiser pressure)
  • •Current restrictions have not prevented social harms (Southport riots occurred despite Online Safety Act)
  • •Counter-argument: coordination costs of harmful content are real but hard to quantify
  • •International advertisers may prefer clear rules to ambiguous liability
  • •Track record of speech restrictions: 9,700 arrests in 2024 yet Article 19 downgraded UK
  • •US speech regime correlates with world-leading tech sector and research output
3 sources
📋Planning

Planning Zonal

Upfront
+£500m
Annual
-£2.0bn
Revenue
+£5.0bn
Net Annual Effect
+£3.0bn/year
Payback in 2 years
GDP +1.5%Productivity +0.3%high uncertainty
3 sources
🏠Housing

Housing Supply Boost

Upfront
+£2.0bn
Annual
-£8.0bn
Revenue
+£12.0bn
Net Annual Effect
+£4.0bn/year
Payback in 3 years
GDP +2.5%Productivity +0.5%high uncertainty
3 sources
⚠️
CONTESTED ESTIMATE
Significant methodological disputes. View caveats below.
✈️Immigration

Immigration Points Overhaul

Upfront
+£350m
Annual
-£2.5bn
Revenue
+£8.5bn
Net Annual Effect
+£6.0bn/year
Payback in 3 years
GDP +1.8%Productivity +0.25%very high uncertainty
UNCERTAINTY RANGE (Annual Net Effect)
Most Pessimistic
£0m
⟷
Most Optimistic
+£20.0bn
⚠️
MAJOR CAVEATS
  • •Track record: UK net migration hit record 900k+ despite claiming "control" - selection system not working
  • •Points systems require enforcement: Australia deports overstayers, UK does not
  • •Low-skill shortage claims contested: wages in social care/agriculture suppressed by cheap labour availability
  • •Net fiscal contribution varies enormously by origin, skill level, and time horizon - averages mislead
  • •Family reunion and asylum are separate from economic migration - conflating them confuses policy
  • •Housing/infrastructure constraints may limit absorption capacity regardless of skill level
3 sources
⚠️
CONTESTED ESTIMATE
Significant methodological disputes. View caveats below.
🚇Infra

Infrastructure Fast Track

Upfront
+£1.2bn
Annual
-£5.0bn
Revenue
+£12.0bn
Net Annual Effect
+£7.0bn/year
Payback in 5 years
GDP +2.5%Productivity +0.4%very high uncertainty
UNCERTAINTY RANGE (Annual Net Effect)
Most Pessimistic
+£5.0bn
⟷
Most Optimistic
+£40.0bn
⚠️
MAJOR CAVEATS
  • •UK planning uniquely slow: 4-7 years for major projects vs 18 months in Japan, 2 years in Germany
  • •Previous reforms captured by incumbents: Planning Act 2008 added process without removing obstacles
  • •Judicial review reform contested but UK abuse rate far exceeds other democracies
  • •NIMBYism economically rational for homeowners - reform requires changing incentive structure not just rules
  • •Construction capacity genuine constraint: skills shortage, materials costs, would limit short-term gains
  • •Environmental assessment: 50 separate requirements vs single process in most countries - consolidation not abolition
  • •HS2 failure was management/scope creep, not planning speed - wrong lesson to draw
3 sources
⚠️
CONTESTED ESTIMATE
Significant methodological disputes. View caveats below.
🤖Tech/AI

Tech Ai Regulatory Holiday

Upfront
+£200m
Annual
-£500m
Revenue
+£8.0bn
Net Annual Effect
+£7.5bn/year
Payback in 2 years
GDP +2.5%Productivity +0.8%very high uncertainty
UNCERTAINTY RANGE (Annual Net Effect)
Most Pessimistic
-£5.0bn
⟷
Most Optimistic
+£25.0bn
⚠️
MAJOR CAVEATS
  • •AI safety concerns real but often conflated with bias/fairness concerns that are more contested
  • •Brussels Effect limited: EU AI Act primarily affects EU-deployed systems, not global development
  • •UK already lighter-touch than EU - question is whether to go further toward US approach
  • •Compute and talent are genuine constraints: £14bn infrastructure plan addresses compute, talent needs visa reform
  • •"Bad actors" argument proves too much - applies to all technology, not specific to AI
  • •Skills shortage is binding constraint but can be addressed in parallel with regulatory approach
  • •Track record: UK tech sector successful precisely where regulation is lightest (fintech, gaming)
3 sources
⚠️
CONTESTED ESTIMATE
Significant methodological disputes. View caveats below.
📈Productivity

Regulation Sunset Clause

Upfront
+£2.0bn
Annual
+£2.0bn
Revenue
+£8.0bn
Net Annual Effect
+£10.0bn/year
Payback in 3 years
GDP +1.5%Productivity +0.35%very high uncertainty
UNCERTAINTY RANGE (Annual Net Effect)
Most Pessimistic
-£10.0bn
⟷
Most Optimistic
+£25.0bn
⚠️
MAJOR CAVEATS
  • •Benefit-cost ratios of UK regulations rarely evaluated post-implementation; assumed benefits often not realised
  • •Regulatory uncertainty is real risk - clear sunset process essential to avoid investment freeze
  • •International comparison: UK regulatory burden heavier than US, Singapore; lighter than EU
  • •Catastrophic failure risk real but rare; status quo also has costs (Grenfell was regulatory failure, not absence)
  • •Externalities cut both ways: regulation can create negative externalities (housing shortage, energy costs)
  • •Track record: UK regulatory state has grown continuously since 1990s while growth has stagnated
4 sources
👶Fertility

Childcare Fertility Expansion

Upfront
+£1.5bn
Annual
+£8.0bn
Revenue
+£3.5bn
Net Annual Effect
+£11.5bn/year
Payback in 4 years
GDP +0.6%Productivity +0.1%very high uncertainty
3 sources
⚠️
CONTESTED ESTIMATE
Significant methodological disputes. View caveats below.
🏭Industry

Reindustrialisation Package

Upfront
+£8.0bn
Annual
+£4.0bn
Revenue
+£9.0bn
Net Annual Effect
+£13.0bn/year
Payback in 8 years
GDP +2%Productivity +0.35%very high uncertainty
UNCERTAINTY RANGE (Annual Net Effect)
Most Pessimistic
-£15.0bn
⟷
Most Optimistic
+£30.0bn
⚠️
MAJOR CAVEATS
  • •UK deindustrialisation was policy choice (energy costs, planning, skills) not inevitable market outcome
  • •Services focus has delivered stagnant productivity since 2008 - "comparative advantage" is circular argument
  • •"Picking winners" critique applies to all state action; question is whether current approach works (it doesnt)
  • •US IRA/EU subsidies are real competitors but UK can focus on niches, not match scale
  • •Energy costs 40-60% above EU is solvable policy problem, not fixed constraint
  • •Labour costs argument ignores productivity: Germany has higher wages AND more manufacturing
  • •Brexit friction real but UK can also negotiate FTAs with faster-growing markets
  • •Taiwan/Korea/Singapore success required state capacity UK currently lacks - rebuild that first
3 sources

About These Costings

These policy costings follow the rigorous methodologies established by the OBR, HM Treasury Green Book, and IFS Tax Policy Costing Manual. Each costing includes:

  • •Central, low, and high estimates to reflect uncertainty
  • •Confidence levels for fiscal, GDP, and employment impacts
  • •Methodology approach (static, behavioural, or dynamic)
  • •Key assumptions and sensitivity analysis
  • •Source attribution with links to original research
  • •International comparisons where similar policies exist

All costs are in £ millions unless otherwise stated. Negative values represent savings or revenue gains. The discount rate used is 3.5% (Treasury Green Book standard).

Key Sources

OBR Policy Costings•HM Treasury Green Book•IFS Tax Policy Costing Manual